The Odyssey Is the Film to Beat. Its Biggest Advantage Isn’t Scale.

All of that is true. It is also the least interesting part of the argument.

The Odyssey is the film to beat because its awards strength is not concentrated in one place.

As of August 7, all 17 forecasters on Next Best Picture had the film in their Best Picture lineup, with 10 predicting it to win. Nolan led its Best Director poll as well, with 11 of 17 forecasters calling him the winner. The same prediction board currently has the film first in cinematography, costume design, editing, production design, original score, casting and, in its user model, sound. That is the profile of a movie with several independent routes to a large nomination total.

That matters more than simply being big.

Awards season is filled with expensive films that dominate technical conversations and then stop at the edge of the major categories. The difference with The Odyssey is that the craft is attached to performances and narrative choices voters can discuss just as easily as the camera format.

Matt Damon is currently third in Next Best Picture's pundit ranking for Best Actor, with 14 of 17 forecasters predicting a nomination. Anne Hathaway is second among the site's pundits in Supporting Actress, with 16 of 17 predicting her. John Leguizamo appears in its Supporting Actor top five. Variety also reported strong early reactions from Academy voters to Damon, Hathaway, Leguizamo and other members of the ensemble after official screenings.

That is the part of the package that makes the film dangerous.

A cinematography branch can vote for the monumental landscapes. The sound branch can vote for the violence and physicality. Actors can respond to Damon's exhausted Odysseus, Hathaway's restraint, or the supporting ensemble. Directors can admire the logistical command of the production. Writers may have more reservations, particularly given the debate around Nolan's adaptation choices, but even there the film remains close to the top of the category.

That broad appeal is why the movie's scale works in its favor rather than becoming its entire identity.

Next Best Picture currently has The Odyssey second in Adapted Screenplay, behind La Bola Negra. That is an important distinction. The movie does not need to sweep every category to win Best Picture. In fact, a little resistance may make its overall position easier to understand. The film can lose screenplay, visual effects, makeup, or another technical race and still have a stronger coalition than a rival that wins one or two categories decisively.

The strongest Best Picture winners are often not the movies everyone agrees are flawless. They are the movies a large number of voters respect for different reasons.

The Odyssey already has that kind of map.

It is also benefiting from something that cannot be reduced to prediction percentages: people have seen it. The film has been in theaters for weeks, its reviews are settled, its commercial performance is no longer hypothetical, and the conversation has survived the first wave of backlash that comes with any movie this visible.

Rotten Tomatoes currently lists it at 94 percent from more than 450 reviews, with its consensus praising both the scale and the ensemble. The Wall Street Journal called it an "aptly epic adventure." The Guardian's five-star review praised its ambition, seriousness and IMAX-sized landscapes, while other critics, including classicists writing about the adaptation, have challenged Nolan's modernization of Odysseus and the treatment of Homer.

That disagreement may sound like a liability. It may actually be part of the reason the film feels durable.

The movie is no longer being discussed simply as the summer's giant Nolan release. It is being argued about as an adaptation, a political text, a star vehicle, a technical achievement and a piece of popular entertainment. Awards campaigns spend millions trying to create the sense that a film matters beyond its release weekend. The Odyssey arrived there on its own.

The biggest vulnerability is obvious. It is August.

The fall still contains films from major filmmakers, performances voters have not seen and festival discoveries that could reorganize entire categories in a weekend. La Bola Negra is already formidable on paper. Wild Horse Nine has major acting strength. Digger carries Alejandro G. Iñárritu and Tom Cruise. Dune: Part Three could dominate craft categories that The Odyssey currently owns. The Debut and Fjord are sitting high in acting and directing predictions before the season has properly hardened.

Being first now means becoming the target.

Every new contender will be measured against The Odyssey. Every weakness will be amplified because voters and pundits need the race to move. A film that feels inevitable in August can feel old by December.

There is also a real question about how much of the Oppenheimer story can repeat itself. Nolan won the directing Oscar only a few years ago. The Academy has already celebrated his career in the most definitive way possible. The Odyssey cannot rely on the overdue narrative that helped turn Oppenheimer into a coronation.

It has to win because voters think this movie is the achievement.

So far, that appears plausible.

What makes the film different from a conventional blockbuster contender is the degree to which the technical achievement and emotional argument are intertwined. The scale does not sit next to the story. It is the mechanism that puts pressure on the story.

Damon's Odysseus is convincing because the journey looks punishing. Hathaway's patience matters because the distance feels enormous. Leguizamo's humanity has weight because people around him can disappear inside the machinery of war. Van Hoytema's images do more than produce beautiful landscapes; they reduce the characters against environments that do not care whether they survive.

This is also why the film's Best Picture case is stronger than its loudest sequences.

The Academy is not being asked to vote for a three-hour spectacle simply because it is difficult to make. It is being asked to vote for a film in which difficulty becomes meaning.

The race will change. It always does.

Project Hail Mary is already a serious alternative. La Bola Negra has the screenplay strength and the unknown ceiling that comes with a major fall contender. Wild Horse Nine may become an actors' movie. Dune: Part Three has not even had the chance to show us what it is.

But a frontrunner does not need to be unbeatable. It needs to be difficult to dislodge.

Right now, beating The Odyssey means finding a film with a stronger directing story, a stronger acting story, a stronger craft story, or a more compelling Best Picture narrative. Several contenders may eventually beat it in one of those areas.

The problem for the field is that The Odyssey is competitive in nearly all of them at once.