Analysis
Why The Longest Winter's cinematography branch surge might not translate to Best Picture
Guild love and Academy love aren't the same thing, and this year's craft-heavy climber is a case study in the gap between them.
Awards
Last updated July 31, 2026
Our ballot
What The Screening Room would vote for today, our name on it
Best Picture — Our Pick
Low Tide
Runner-up: The Foundry
A quiet family drama that never once mistakes restraint for a lack of ambition.
The races right now
Who’s most likely to actually win, and who’s closing the gap
| Category | Frontrunner | Main Challenger | Rising |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best Picture | Low Tide | The Foundry | The Longest Winter |
| Director | Nadia Marsh | Christopher Nolan | Desmond Achebe |
| Actor | Desmond Achebe | Lead, Static | Lead, The Longest Winter |
| Actress | Odile Fontaine | Lead, Harbor Lights | Corinne Aldrich |
| Supporting Actor | Milo Sandoval | Ensemble, Vermilion Hour | Ensemble, The Foundry |
| Supporting Actress | Corinne Aldrich | Ensemble, Midnight Ferry | Ensemble, Harbor Lights |
Awards calendar
Festivals, nomination announcements, guild awards, and the ceremonies that matter
Aug 30Venice Film Festival opensFestival
Sep 4Telluride Film FestivalFestival
Sep 11Toronto International Film FestivalFestival
Nov 24Gotham AwardsCeremony
Dec 8Golden Globe nominations announcedNominations
Dec 15Screen Actors Guild nominationsGuild
Jan 5Directors Guild of America nominationsGuild
Jan 12Golden Globe Awards ceremonyCeremony
Jan 22Academy Award nominations announcedNominations
Feb 22Academy Awards ceremonyOscars
Recent awards analysis
Essays, prediction updates, and category breakdowns
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Breakdown
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Analysis