1— SAME
Low Tide
TIFF Audience Award, Gotham nom
The film to beat, and it hasn't wobbled since the first screening.
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Best Picture
Last updated July 31, 2026 · 10 contenders
2↑ UP 1
The Foundry
PGA nomination
Building support from the guilds that tend to reward craft over flash.
3↓ DOWN 1
Vermilion Hour
SAG ensemble nomination
Still widely loved, but its precursor trail has cooled slightly since August.
4↑ UP 2
The Longest Winter
BAFTA longlist, ASC nom
Rising fast on the strength of its cinematography branch support.
5↓ DOWN 1
The Odyssey
Sound and VFX guild nods
A scale play that's finding its ceiling in the acting and directing branches.
6↓ DOWN 1
Harbor Lights
Independent Spirit nomination
A warm critical reception hasn't yet built into a wide precursor trail.
7↑ UP 1
Amber Season
Critics' Choice nomination
A late-summer sleeper that's quietly picking up steam.
8— SAME
Static
Genre-friendly guild buzz
A tough sell for Best Picture on tone alone, but not out of the conversation yet.
9NEW
Project Hail Mary
VFX and score buzz building
Early in the year for Best Picture math, but the guilds haven't forgotten it.
10↓ DOWN 1
Glass House
Cooling since release
Momentum has stalled considerably since its July release window.